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Last Updated on Friday, 03 December 2010 21:17 Written by Administrator Friday, 12 November 2010 00:00 USD/JPY From Danske Bank: Turning to China, the bank notes that it appears the Chinese government will miss its inflation target in 2010 and perhaps in 2011 as well. They believe inflation will be the first priority for China with these signs of increasing growth. “Today's bad inflation number could eventually contribute to easing tensions between China and the US, as it will increasingly be in China's own interests to let its currency appreciate to ease inflationary pressure,” they said in a research report. From Mizuho: Taking a look at the technical picture, analysts at Mizuho said USD/JPY is breaking first trendline resistance to retrace almost 50% of the most recent decline and stalling at the second trendline. “Watch to see whether the Lagging Span gets pushed lower by the candles of October thereby keeping moving averages pointing to a short position,” they note. Their strategy is to attempt small shorts at 82.25 and stop above 82.85. GBP/USD From UBS AG: The Bank of England released its quarterly inflation report yesterday and caused growing speculation that they won’t engage in another round of quantitative easing. According to “The pound is still enjoying some tailwinds from the inflation report,” said Geoffrey Yu, an FX strategist at UBS AG in London. The pound has is the best performing G10 currency so far in today’s trading. From Mizuho: Looking at the GBP/USD technical picture, analysts at the firm said the moving averages are pointing to a long position “and the Lagging Span has got a little bit of bullish momentum from October’s candles and August’s resistance might turn into support.” Their strategy is to buy at 1.6140/1.6100and stop below 1.5950.
AUD/USD From Credit Agricole CIB: Mitul Kotecha, head of global currency strategy at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong said recently released data from China shows “solid improvement in China’s fundamentals.” He also noted that it helps risk appetite to an extent and this in turn could perhaps help NZD and AUD. Chinese CPI came in better than the expected 4.0% at 4.4%. The producer price index increased by 5.0% compared to the 4.6% economists had forecasted. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: Philip Brown, debt strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the bank doesn’t expect the RBA to make any moves until February 2010. With major banks hiking interest rates beyond the RBA’s 25 basis point hike, he thinks there is less pressure to tighten policy.
USD/CAD From RBC Capital Markets: A research report from RBC said that Canada, unlike the U.S. has a lot of policy credibility and this will be CAD positive against USD and other currencies, especially during times of “increased turbulence that seem sure to recur given the enormity of forthcoming adjustments.” From TD Securities: Canada’s trade balance showed a larger than expected decline to -2.5B from the expected -1.6B in September. Details of the report showed a steep decline in exports, largely due to weak auto exports to the U.S. and a strong increase in imports. TD notes the “silver lining” of the report was the growth rate of imports of machinery and equipment to 3.2% after months of lagging growth. “Nevertheless, net exports will weigh heavily on Q3 annualized real GDP growth, which is currently tracking just shy of the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 1.6%,” they said. |
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